A weapons store and topsy-turvy fighting: how Taiwan was able, with American assistance, to stop an invasion by China

Beijing's aggressive military response reverberated throughout the world when Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen defied warnings from China to meet with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California earlier this month.

During a three-day military exercise, the People's Liberation Army simulated a blockade of the island by sending an aircraft carrier and 12 naval ships to encircle it and flying over 100 warplanes into its air defense identification zone. These actions only fueled concerns that China, which is ruled by communism, was getting ready to invade its democratically governed neighbor.

The exercises were described as "joint precision strikes" by China's ruling Communist Party, which claims Taiwan as part of its territory despite never having controlled it. They were meant to be a "serious warning against the Taiwan separatist forces."

Taipei thought the message was clear. According to the remarks made by the island's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu to Jim Sciutto of CNN, China appeared "to be trying to get ready to launch a war against Taiwan."

Some people may have questioned the sufficiency of the island's military preparations for such a scenario following that blunt assessment.

To improve its combat readiness, Taipei recently made a very public announcement that it would increase the length of mandatory military service from four months to a year and would accelerate the development of its indigenous weapons program.

However, examiners say a new declaration - one that has maybe gone less commented upon in the worldwide media - could demonstrate a distinct advantage: talks between the United States of America and Taipei regarding the establishment of a "contingency stockpile" of weapons on Taiwan's soil.

Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng told Taiwan's parliament in March that Taipei was in talks with the US about a possible plan to set up a war reserve stock on the island. This was made possible by a provision in the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which US President Joe Biden signed into law in December.

And keeping in mind that Taiwan has for quite some time been a buyer of weapons from the US, military specialists say the making of such a reserve could be crucial to the island's guard on the grounds that - as China's as of late mimicked barricade showed - it very well may be unquestionably challenging to supply the island with extra weapons in the event that war breaks out.

Since Taiwan does not have any land borders like Ukraine does, any supplies would have to come in by air or sea, which are both highly susceptible to being intercepted by the Chinese military.

Taiwan must load up ammo on the island before any contention starts, said Naval commander Lee Hsi-min, who filled in as Head of the General Staff for the Taiwanese military somewhere in the range of 2017 and 2019.

"Having a conflict save store is essential and significant for Taiwan," he said. " These kinds of stocks can still be very useful for our defense even if the United States does not want to directly intervene militarily.

Throughout the conflict in Ukraine, Taiwan has also frequently voiced concerns regarding US weapon delivery delays. Speaker McCarthy posted on Twitter after his meeting with Tsai: It is evident that a number of actions are required based on today's conversations: We should proceed with arms deals to Taiwan and ensure such deals arrive at Taiwan on time."


Deviated fighting

The discussions over the conceivable reserve make one wonder: What exactly is Taiwan's defense requirement?

Despite not having an "official" diplomatic relationship, the United States has provided the island's military with fighter jets and missiles for decades. Last month, the Biden administration made headlines when it approved potential arms sales to Taiwan worth an estimated $619 million, including hundreds of missiles for its fleet of F-16 fighter jets.

However, Admiral Lee stated that Taiwan urgently required a stockpile of smaller, more mobile weapons that would have a greater chance of surviving the initial wave of a Chinese attack in an all-out conflict, which would most likely include long-range joint missile strikes on Taiwanese military targets and infrastructure.

Lee argued in the well-known book "Overall Defense Concept," which came out last year, that Taiwan should steer clear of spending a lot of money on fighter jets and destroyers because its military assets were already vastly outnumbered by China's and could be easily paralyzed by long-range missiles.

Last year, China's guard financial plan was $230 billion, a greater number of than multiple times the size of Taiwan's expenditure of $16.89 billion.

Lee argued that Taiwan should adopt an asymmetric warfare model that focuses on the acquisition of smaller weapons like portable missiles and mines, which are difficult to detect but effective at halting enemy advances rather than matching ship to ship or plane to plane.

He stated, "Ukraine's military has sunk Moscow's battleships with Neptune anti-ship missiles." We will be able to maintain our combat capabilities with asymmetric weapon systems. This is due to the fact that our enemies will need to get closer to us in order to destroy them, making them susceptible to our attack.

He continued, "I believe China won't be able to take over Taiwan by force, even without United States intervention, if we can establish good enough asymmetrical capability."

Although the United States of America has unofficially maintained close ties with Taiwan and is mandated by law to sell arms to the island for its self-defense, the country's policy of "strategic ambiguity" leaves it deliberately ambiguous as to whether it would intervene in the event of a Chinese invasion.

Portable weapons Taiwan will be eligible to receive up to $1 billion in weapons and munitions from the United States to counter China's growing military threat as a result of this year's National Defense Authorization Act, which was approved by Congress and signed by President Joe Biden.

Additionally, the act permits the establishment of a regional contingency stockpile, allowing the Pentagon to store weapons in Taiwan for use in the event of a conflict with China.

A spokesman for Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense confirmed in a response to CNN that the country is in talks with the United States regarding the definition of a "contingency," the kinds of weapons that Taiwan's armed forces can use right away, and the timetable for shipping the items.

In addition, the ministry stated that the move is not intended to "pre-stock" Taiwan's munitions but only to meet Taiwan's defensive requirements.

The US Indo-Pacific Command stated that it would continue to assist Taiwan in maintaining a sufficient self-defense capability, despite the fact that it declined to provide any specifics regarding the progress of the discussions regarding the creation of the stockpile.

According to Lin Ying-yu, an assistant professor at Tamkang University who specializes in military affairs, the creation of a contingency stockpile ought to focus on accumulating weapons that Taiwan's military already uses to guarantee operational efficacy.

"I consider a few the weapons that the US may give incorporate the Stinger and the Nationalist rockets," he said. The Patriot missile defense system is capable of intercepting enemy aircraft and missiles, while the Stinger is a surface-to-air missile that can be fired by a single soldier.

According to Admiral Lee, the Javelin, a portable anti-tank weapon system manufactured in the United States that has been extensively utilized by the Ukrainian military to target Russian tanks, is another weapon that could be stored.

The Public High level Surface-to-Air Rocket Framework, or NASAMS, could likewise be valuable for focusing on Chinese warplanes, he said, as it was fit for terminating the medium-range Point 120 rocket from ground level.

Different weapons that ought to be viewed as incorporated the dallying ammo drone - a supposed "self destruction drone" that can be conveyed by a solitary trooper and is equipped for obliterating high-esteem targets - as well as other enemy of protective layer and hostile to deliver weaponry, he added.

Lee stated, "You can keep most of your fighting capabilities intact and stop the enemy from conducting a landing operation if you have a high enough number of these kinds of asymmetrical weapon systems that survive the initial attack."

How many is sufficient?
How many missiles or weapons Taiwan would need to defend itself against China is another question.

Specialists said giving a substantial number was troublesome on the grounds that the conceivable battle situations were so changed.

Admiral Lee wrote in his book that the Chinese military could use a variety of strategies to try to control Taiwan.

Before attempting to move its ground troops across the Taiwan Strait in an all-out war, China might use long-range missiles to destroy Taiwanese military targets and infrastructure.

An aerial and naval blockade of Taiwan or the capture of Taiwan's small outlying islands that are close to the Chinese coast are other scenarios that would require little military action.

However, Lin suggested that Taiwan would probably require "tens of thousands" of missiles.
He stated that estimating the total number of offensive military assets owned by the enemy and the effectiveness of Taiwan's defensive weapons is one relatively straightforward method for determining the required number of missiles. For instance, if our adversary possesses 1,000 missiles and our success rate is 25%, we will require approximately 4,000 anti-ballistic missiles.

Lin went on to say that in addition to weapons, Taiwan's military could benefit from mobile radar systems that would allow it to receive US military signals. These future valuable in leading electronic fighting, as the US military would have the option to assist with distinguishing potential adversary targets regardless of whether ground radar frameworks had been annihilated.

Lin stated, "The United States has been able to tell the Ukrainian military where to fire their weapons by sending signals from its electronic warfare aircraft despite the fact that the United States does not have troops on the ground in Ukraine." In times of war, we must ensure that we have the necessary equipment to connect to US military systems.

There were different reasons the conversations with the US over the conceivable reserve were significant, Naval commander Lee said, and they went past issues of accumulating ammo and extra parts.

He stated, "Having a contingency stockpile is very important because it shows China that the United States is determined to help us defend ourselves."